A redditor wrote in r/IAmA
On “I am Elon Musk, CEO/CTO of a rocket company, AMA!”
Previously, you've stated that you estimate a 50% probability of success with the attempted landing on the automated spaceport drone ship tomorrow. Can you discuss the factors that were considered to make that estimation? In addition, can you talk more about the grid fins that…
u/ElonMuskOfficial replied
I pretty much made that up. I have no idea :)
The grid fins are super important for landing with precision. The aerodynamic forces are way too strong for the nitrogen thrusters. In particular, achieving pitch trim is hopeless. Our atmosphere is like molasses at Mach 4!